Yes, I think active user base is a good metric. Maybe one of many, but this is a good one.
Whales with bad intentions can inflate the implied base by having lots of wallets, but it’s much harder to fake engagement.
I think a nice DAO taskforce or group to form, would be a TA group, that mostly brainstorms ways to quantify the real trajectories of things so that when we talk about ideas, we’re speaking about actual math instead of anecdotal observations.
Obviously, I’d love to participate in that. I’m sure every guild has one or more people like me, that wake up every morning and bust out the calculator and charts and lose their day to analysis.
We need a higher stakes gambling option for frens. Let the degens run wild. Portal openers are our best deflationary userbase, so far, as sacrificers are mostly a thing of the past.
The arena is the answer, IMHO. It’s the poker table at the casino. Users playing users, no inputs from the house, and a house charge that burns frens, would drive the markets, burn frens, and dilute the asset pool not at all.
People need a thing to do when there is nothing to do. Human nature will solve the problem, as the bored and the risk averse do themselves dirty all on their own.
Metrics that could be used for determining a wallets value… (I would set emissions to half or less of the number our stat is giving us, as you are speculating, not staking)
a ratio of the weekly VWAP of each items floor - this is my initial guess for best way. this would encourage raising floors
using the monday mean sale price - this could drive some cool market cycle dynamics, creating some cyclical action that would be outside of the triangular motion we currently see
take the difference between purchase price and floor price and divide that by the vix of the asset(probably need a modifier in here to make it play nice) - this would cause items that have low volatility to become more desirable, thereby raising their volatility, and creating internal market cycles
This is easy for wearables, as they are fungible amongst themselves. Land, before launch… also fungible, as even amongst boosted parcels, you have peers. Gotchis… I’d say do rarity bands per collateral, for running the calculation.
For best effect and minimal overhead, I would do this on a weekly basis, and do it on a day that rarely has releases or events, as a predictable market is a happy market. If you know anything about TA, you know that patterns that are clean are trends. New people need to be able to see the trends or they wont want in. This is exactly why you have bull markets and bear markets. We go down, until it becomes obvious that we are not. If you create a system where there is a weekly cycle, and yes, it might go up or down a range, but is mostly trading in channels, you have something that new blood can see and say “Oh, i see where I should jump in, this is a good market for me to participate in”