Raffle tickets and GLTR

[notorious_BTC]

Hey frens,

There’s been a lot of discussion in Discord regarding the future of raffles and I wanted to carry things over here for better documentation.

AGIP 40 was voted on to sunset FRENS under the notion that GLTR is our new staking reward. However, we have not yet determined how we will be doing raffles henceforth.

Coderdan has stated a number of times they are not interested in phasing out raffle tickets for a number of reasons but mainly due the AFK members of the gotchigang returning months later only to discover their tickets are now worthless. It is not the most elegant solution.

The best solution presented so far is to allow users to purchase tickets for GLTR. This brings up a few things to discuss:

1. What is the conversion rate for GLTR/tickets?
2. Is the conversion rate determined once and forever or is this something that would be updated monthly/quarterly/etc. as GLTR is a hyper inflationary token.
3. What do we do about the upcoming raffle? There’s been quite a bit of volume on tickets already in the bazaar. Is it fair to drop a new mechanic which will dramatically increase supply, potentially rugging those who are buying ahead?
4. Do we create a mechanic where drop tickets can be reverted into other tickets?

I did some quick math here and you can see there is significant imbalance in market prices. Back when we had raffles regularly and FRENS were emitting, the price ratio on tickets was generally pretty balanced. However, today that is not the case. For example, myth and drop tickets cost the same in FRENS but mythical tickets are selling at over 100% premium.

My thoughts on the points above:

Let’s not introduce a new GLTR mechanic until after the upcoming raffle. Afterwards, let’s set the ticket prices to the FRENS ratio pegged to that time’s GLTR price. Set a schedule for the FTF to change the price of tickets every quarter. The new price is adjusted based off of the original price point. That would look something like this:

Let’s say in a few months when the prices are set, GLTR is now $0.0000047. Going off of the current common ticket price, you get nice numbers like this:

Now the initial prices and ratios are set. In the future, when the FTF recalculates things, let’s say GLTR is now $0.000004. This makes tickets now more expensive, like this.

Of course, if GLTR appreciates, then tickets become cheaper, relative to GLTR.

These are just my initial thoughts. I look forward to a passionate discussion!

[HARDKOR]

I am unable to find anything here to passionately discuss because it looks great.

If someone makes it better, double win.

Actually, there’s this - This would be a good one to include the code with the sig prop. Thats the process we’ll eventually use, and this is a great place to start.

[stedari]

This is why you are so valuable to our community! You intuitively capture the right path forward. This looks great. We don’t have time to implement this prior to the Forge raffle. I don’t know how technically difficult this is to implement and then change but we can investigate.

[soloegoist]

I really like this idea where we change the minting price (GLTR) of tix every quarter, because then people will be motivated to mint tix when GLTR drops with the assumption that next quarter the mint price of tix will be higher and more GLTR will be needed to mint tix. If the price of minting tix was fixed, then everyone would mint tix only when bets are accepted during the raffle (few days per year)

[reset]

I am not sure about the following:

Is the mint cost of tix constant usdc wise?

If you wait and buy gltr to mint on next quarterly update would it still cost the same in usdc term? (even if gltr price is higher or lower relative to now)

Please kindly let me know if I misunderstood parts of it

[Maxicrouton]

I am 100% for tickets to be purchased with GLTR.

@notorious_BTC

1. What is the conversion rate for GLTR/tickets?
2. Is the conversion rate determined once and forever or is this something that would be updated monthly/quarterly/etc. as GLTR is a hyper inflationary token.
3. What do we do about the upcoming raffle? There’s been quite a bit of volume on tickets already in the bazaar. Is it fair to drop a new mechanic which will dramatically increase supply, potentially rugging those who are buying ahead?
4. Do we create a mechanic where drop tickets can be reverted into other tickets?

Leaving my opinion here :

1. I would stick with the original frens ratio (Godlike costs 5* more GLTR than Myth, which costs 4* more than Legendary, etc.). The ticket market is illiquid enough for the market to correct to the right price in a very short time.

2. Updated every year since the GLTR emission is updated every year. (Update should happen just after a raffle to avoid having a “rug day”)

3. The volume was no more than 2k ghst last week, I think if technically we can make the change quickly, it’s okay to do it as soon as possible even before the next raffle. Maybe we can allocate some dao GHST to pay the difference to the guys who invested in the tickets. If we make the change before the next raffle, it will help to burn a bit of the tons of GLTR in circulation right now.

4. If technically it doesn’t take too much dev time, yes

[notorious_BTC]

That is one way of putting it, yes. We basically lock in a price of tickets at today’s rate in GHST and apply that price to the ticket cost ratio (50 common, 250 uncommon, etc)

Then over time as GLTR fluctuates, we recalibrate every quarter, six months, etc (whatever is agreed upon long in advance)

This may work as an advantage for the GLTR market as people assume GLTR to go down in value, so they’d be more likely to burn off their GLTR for tickets as some form of store of value. I would have to play with some modelling more to see how things may actually go down, but that’s the gist of it.

[notorious_BTC]

Thanks for sharing fren…on point #1, we have to also establish a base cost in GLTR to apply that ratio to. ie one common ticket is 5000 GLTR. Then from there the Uncommon costs 5x at 25k and so on.

[Maxicrouton]

I like to take 5000 fren/ticket for common as a base, we stay on the same arithmetic as with frens tickets

[reset]

If I am staking I think I would swap the gltr reward for ghst and stake it for more gltr.

Then unstake the ghst later price update point to buy the ticket since ticket price is constant in ghst term. (If tickets is what I want to get)

[notorious_BTC]

I think there are two possible paths forward for GLTR tickets.

1. Dynamic GLTR-Based Pricing. Determine an initial GHST price for tickets and recalibrate every X period. The GLTR price changes over time.

2. Static Ticket Price. Determine a GLTR price for tickets and that price never changes.

Let’s look at how each might play out. We’ll assume GLTR continues its downtrend towards zero.

1. Dynamic GLTR-Based Pricing

Let’s just say 1 Legendary ticket costs 1 USD.
Every quarter, prices are recalibrated towards that peg. If GLTR is trending down, then tickets increase in price, relative to GLTR.

Yield famers would likely opt to buy tickets today in hopes of capturing value.
Players may choose to accumulate raffle tickets, leading to high supply and less volatility around raffles.
GLTR is incentivised to be burned today vs tomorrow.
Tickets would likely sell at a slight discount vs the mint price.
Tickets would remain somewhat stable in price as minters would stop minting if prices drop too much in secondary.
Stable ticket prices make it easy to calculate ROI and raffle odds.

2. Static Ticket Pricing

Let’s say 1 Legendary ticket costs 250,000 GLTR, always and forever.

Ticket prices are now essentially an extension of GLTR prices.
Because of this, there is little incentive to have tickets accumulated, resulting in low supply.
Come raffle time, due to low supply, expect high volatility in ticket prices.
This volatility offers an opportunity for the trader.
Since tickets are essentially the same as GLTR, there is little incentive to burn GLTR today for your tickets.

My Thoughts

In reviewing the two paths, Option 1 seems like the clear choice to me. The only downside is players will have less of a swing trade available to them with raffle tickets. But to be honest, we have enough moving parts in our economy as is. I prefer a stable price on tickets.

If we adjust the ticket price over time, GLTR farmers are likely going to want to burn their tokens into a ticket which is stable-ish. The more frequently we update the price, the more likely they’d want to burn asap. I would vote for something like every three months.

That being said, I am no longer LPing into any of the pools, so I don’t really my hands on this topic. I would love to hear some insight from the top LPers and which route they believe to be best.

[Immaterial]

If we did sunset frens and tickets then we could move to entering gltr directly into a raffle. So essentially each gltr token is a ticket for the raffle itself. This way we dont have to worry about manually recalibrating any conversion rate. People would just enter the amount of gltr into each raffle pool (common, uncommon, rare etc) that made sense EV wise based on gltr price at the time.

In my opinion the simplicity of this is worth a bit of smart contract work. You could have this be the last frens/ticket raffle and allow people to convert any remaining frens or tickets into rGLTR at a generous one-time fixed conversion rate. Going forward only GLTR or rGLTR can be used in raffles.

[reset]

A little off topic.

Wearable (schem) is being raffled via geo
(The forge v1.1 sigprop)

Wearable (core) is being gbm

Land won’t be raffled due to AGIP 35

There is still 2000 Fake Gotchi Card left

What should I expect to be raffled in the future?

[HARDKOR]

I’m going to let this cook another week before adding to meeting as a full topic, because it seems like it’s still evolving.

[notorious_BTC]

CD has been pretty strongly against a total sunset of tickets.

One advantage of keeping tickets is being able to use them as giveaways/airdrops etc.

However, directly purchasing tickets with GLTR makes for a much smoother user experience.

To be perfectly honest, I don’t have a strong opinion on the matter. Each path forward has its merits.

[stedari]

Only one set (legendary Forge set) will be in the geodes. The other sets will be available 60% by GBM and 40% by raffle. So, there is a raffle upcoming. I hope to have quarterly sales + raffles of schematics (± cores/alloy per the DAO). PC has mentioned other ideas for the raffle but I don’t know what they are.

[reset]

@stedari

I hope to have quarterly sales + raffles of schematics (± cores/alloy per the DAO). PC has mentioned other ideas for the raffle but I don’t know what they are.

Thanks for the clarification

I read the last 2 item in the following and interpreted it differently

Also the following chart gave me the wrong impression schem will be from geo only in future update

[notorious_BTC]

Nope the idea was to just lay the groundwork for the odds across all possible scenarios in the future.