Perpetual Raffle

Ideas
1

Hey Frens,

I wanted to do a quick temperature check on the perpetual raffles idea. If there’s enough interest, then I will continue to pursue it. Here is what I am considering:

Launch a pilot raffle with an initial pot of 3000 GHST worth of assets. The first buy would be humble parcels with a current floor of 60 GHST. Ideally, we capture about 50 parcels to raffle.

The premise is this:

Purchase the prizes at floor and sub-floor pricing over a short period of time. The buyer would be scouting for great bargains in the bazaar and buy when the opportunity strikes.

Lock those prizes into the raffle wallet.

Players then purchase 1 Ghst tickets which are entered immediately (no secondary market).

As soon as the raffle pot hits 150% of the total buy price, anyone can trigger the raffle. The vrf is queued and viola, the winners receive their claim tickets to get their prizes.

The raffle buyer then receives the funds from the raffle to buy again.

Rinse and repeat.

There are a few advantages as well as some concerns I have that I wanted to lay out and see where the community stands.

Advantages

These all assume a successful operation

The raffle mechanism would serve as a soft-backstop for floor prices. And the more utilised the raffle, the stronger this would be.

Smol players could grab a valuable asset for as little as 1 Ghst. This was the original intention behind this idea.

There would be a consistently hungry buyer willing to buy assets at a deep discount for anyone needing immediate liquidity ( I also have some ideas on how to make this part even juicer for the community. )

Items would, in my mind, go to people who actually want to win something.

The 150% of the buy price ensures the pot never goes into a loss while also keeping the odds of winning consistent for entrants. This number also allows for scaling to a point there could potentially be concurrent raffles, bigger prizes, larger prize pools, or even mixed bag raffles with smol prizes and one grand prize like a mythical or even godlike.

A relatively small raffle let’s us pilot the program.

A perpetual raffle, especially if heavily utilised, would serve as a consistent form of entertainment for the community.

Concerns

My major concern with this idea is the potential lack of players.

The frens raffles are so successful because the tickets for many are essentially free. With enough Ghst or tickets, you can set yourself up for a nearly-guaranteed win.

This raffle is inherently different in the sense that it is run purely on Ghst. That means it functions more like a true raffle/lottery and you will never be able to guarantee a profitable experience.

So my major concern is there wouldn’t be enough apes to play. This is why I created this thread and poll. I want to see how many people would play and what they would ape with.

I am not sure if the big bags would play for humble parcels rewards. Perhaps then the better prize pool is something the whole community would be interested in, such as portals. I will leave you with a few different polls. Please vote and share your thoughts as well. :pray::pray::pray:

There are some other technical concerns which need to be navigated, but for now I’m mostly seeking to gauge overall interest in playing to determine if this is worth pursuing.

Would you play in the raffle?

  • Yes, always regardless of which prizes
  • Yes, but it depends on which prizes I can win
  • Unlikely or rarely
  • No I wouldn’t play

0 voters

How much would you ape?

  • 1-5 ghst
  • 6-15 ghst
  • 16-30 ghst
  • 31+ ghst

0 voters

8 Likes
2

It’s so fun, I hope anyone can hold an event, I’m willing to donate half of the proceeds to the treasury or destroy it

3

I’m presuming the how much question is in regards to a humble :slight_smile:

I’ve been thinking about this a lot, and humbles, reasonables, and open portals, are the best thing we can do this with.

This raffle isn’t necessarily for us… part of the point of this is to onboard new people and to give the smollest bags and scholars a shot at a level up while getting them hooked and investing in the economy. People sell land because it costs money to use the land effectively, and there is definitely a point(especially at these alch prices), where it is best to just dump your humbles and buy alch to build out your larger parcels quicker. If we can get that land into the hands of someone who is just going to grind it up and build on it, we all win because that’s one more person fully involved in our economy and if they only own one land, they will surely be renting gotchis all the time.

Open portals are awesome prizes, because it’s like a box of chocolates, and they get to have almost the full experience of opening a portal, as they don’t know what’s in the portal till they win it anyways… it will feel the same. Once they have a gotchi… now they are going to want wearables, and be looking for land.

Maybe we could mix in one open portal and any reasonable parcels below 100, to make it spicey. Looking at the market at the moment, there’s open portals that are in range of RF viability at 475, and tons of humbles under 80, and a reasonable under 100. All of those don’t add up to 3k, so 3k is probably a great starting point.

We should also advertise the hell out of these on social media. 1 GHST entries is such a nice lil drive by FOMO bait.

4

Hey fren, love the idea! I think it tackles more than one issue so definitely hope to see it become a reality.

This is my biggest concern- that running it smoothly and without issues or hiccups will be a major undertaking. We have already seen other great ideas and initiatives fizzle out by reason of depending on volunteers, whom will be likely to be suspected and overanalyzed in their intentions and motives by the community.
Did you have any ideas how to create a sustainable and dependable team to execute these perpetual raffles over the long haul?

1 Like
5

This wouldn’t be for me as I just see it as negative EV, but I’m sure some people would play it and I think it would be good for people who want it to have it.

6

It’s just a bit of code, really. You set the buy parameters, tune them as needed, and let the thing run.

7

Great questions and concerns.

My thinking was to raise funding from the DTF for the initial pot + the developer. It’s basically a fork of the current raffle code. Then, a percentage of the total revenue would be reserved for the raffle manager(s). If it were just me…if I ran this as a labour of love, a 3-5% cut for my time would be enough to keep the lights on. It would take considerable time to harvest all the nfts and prepare the raffle for each round. That is provided the raffle is run through the aavegotchi website. That %%% is exclusive of any funding required to actually run the raffle.

I had also considered adding in a 10% rake for the DTF itself until the initial pot + dev fees were recovered. So in the end, it would replenish the DTF chest. I don’t know if there are tax and legal things to navigate, but I have given considerations to this. Optionally, the 10% could be indefinite which would be a net positive.

As I see the poll results and think about this more, I am not sure how many people would actually play and if there would be enough ghst to fill the raffle each round.

Ie: a 3k ghst pot would need 4.5k ghst in tickets to trigger the raffle. Even if the average player apes 10 ghst into the pot, that’s 450 players needed. And since the EV is negative, there is an upper bound as to how much a person would likely ape (never above the floor of the items on raffle).

And that is just the first round. The original vision was to scale this with each round. So after the management cut and DTF replenishment, the next raffle buy would be around 3.8k ghst. That’s a 5.7k raffle ticket pot needed. And so on. Eventually, we could have raffles in the 10’s of thousands of ghst, but of course that requires even more players to participate. At that point, the raffle would likely include some truly rare items that everyone would want to have.

1 Like
8

I think there are some people who just scour the bazaar for fun that would love to snipe for the DAO. Most guilds have a channel where they post up the good deals, and if those aren’t getting swooped by guildies, there are people in those guilds who would have no issue with tagging those for the DTF to swoop.

If you make a channel on the DTF discord, where you cant see what other people post, and the designated buyer(s) can see it as it comes in, they could simply check it once a day, and buy up the hot deals that are still there. There are a lot of us who would drop links in there. In fact, market action would drive people to do it. If you are already the floor at a good but not wallet bleeding price and some desperado is doing the 20% undercut… surely you would feel motivated to post their listing to the raffle channel, in the hopes that the DAO grabs it before more desperados start undercutting that person.

Or… we just use a very basic bot and let the thing run. It is not beyond the pale to simply pick some numbers like “plain humbles under 70, reasonable under 100, open portals under 400” and put in a ‘buy it now option’ where it takes a console command and the operator could enter a listing ID to grab, if there is something like a boosted parcel that is far underpriced and the DTF thinks would be a nice one for raffle.

Having the DTF do actual long term work as you suggested, could be problematic, due to the makeup of the DTF being mostly very busy people with large(ish) bags, that probably are not interested in manually scouring the bazaar on a long term basis. The people that would be good for this role, fit a different description… active bazaar addict(people that click refresh on the bazaar even when they have 0 GHST) , tends to not have the liquidity to make more than one purchase, is very aware of what pricing is and what is out of the norm, knows when they see a race to bottom happening, and is community minded enough to get some personal satisfaction from helping defend the floor and creating opportunities for others. I can think of a few that fit this description… Harambe, Softmachine, JohhnyC321, Goobz, Penske, Backside, Monarch, Maxicrouton, Umami, myself even… these people all live on the bazaar channel, repost things they see and none are in the market for more humbles, but definitely are aware of when the floor slumps…

9

From my experience with the Task forces, everyone starts with good intentions and having fun, but quickly that enthusiasm fades when the actual work needs being done. Maintaining this raffle would take a lot of effort regardless of how simple you make it sound.

I’ve decided to walk off this idea myself as it doesn’t seem worth the energy and not enough players would get involved. By all means, if you are interested to carry this idea further, I will happily pass the torch to you and let you run wild with it!

10

I’m going to look into a few things that people had hinted at setting up.