If i follow your exemple, on the first raffle that cost 6k, the Dao gets 2k. If the DAO reinvest the 2k in the next raffle, they will continue taking 150% so on 8k (6+2), the DAO get 4k etc…
It’s not really helping new players getting something because the DAO is sweeping the floor to resell with a much higher price.
I find what Coderdan propose has more upsides.
It has to be automated, because there are two bazaar bots that take the weak hands and fat fingers.
The DAO should not be forced to pay the botter’s mark up.
Bearded had a really nice one, that is known to be superior to the others, and as it is in retirement, it would be an ideal solution. He also made a raffle system. We should purchase these from Bearded, to use for the good of the community.
Some kind of raffle where tickets are minted / bought with Alchemica would also be a nice attraction to get Borrowers without own Gotchis and Land to leave their Alchemica in the game and give a chance to build their own Gotchuufamily.
I think it’s worth an experiment. Presumably, those trying to exit under floor are trying to exit the ecosystem, and will sell their GHST. Some will view the raffle as a gamble, and will simply sell the land back to the DAO under floor again, and will also sell their GHST. With the DAO serving as a guaranteed buyer, we should see parcel prices move up, but there would be a downward effect on the price of GHST. At the proposed scale I think that effect would be minor, but that’s where the cost will come from for this kind of stimulus.
If the process is automated, I think some care will be needed to avoid manipulation of the price upward and then dumping of humbles into the bot at elevated prices. A price ceiling would stop this. Maybe rather than waiting for parcels to be listed at -10%, the bot could instead buy the cheapest available parcel at random intervals. The price ceiling would be set pretty low in this case, and those wanting to exit quickly would have to compete against each other to get picked up by the bot during one of the random buys, rather than being guaranteed an immediate exit. In this variant the DAO would be guaranteed to fill its 100 buys within a certain time period, assuming parcels are listed under the price ceiling. Adjusting the price ceiling would be the multisig’s responsibility based on market conditions.
A potential downside I see is that this could actually cause extra sell pressure, as parcels acquired in these raffles could potentially have a cost basis of 1ghst x tickets purchased, could this basis be below what the DAO acquired for? What is to stop those who win from re-listing on the open market for cost + profit margin X?
This could also potentially be mitigated with a price per ticket >1 ghst… maybe we set ticket price as a % of DAO average acquisition price… 75%, 50%, etc.
I’m still not convinced that this mechanism as currently designed wouldn’t just drive prices lower.
Would the proceeds go to the wallet that created the raffle minus DAO/ Pixel percentages? Could this be accomplished with GBM? I guess I can see how GBM could be arb’d as well.
So many big brain words and ideas lol - I don’t get it, but my spidey senses are tingling with concerns we’re trying to turn our parcels into “algorithmic-stable parcels”, no?
What happens if the price of parcels rises from the time of DAO purchase? People get excited about getting a good deal, buy tickets because of +EV, the raffle happens, and the DAO makes more GHST than it started with.
What about if the price falls? The original DAO funds are tied up until enough tickets are bought to trigger the raffle. If it falls enough and never recovers, people may never find it worth it to buy tickets. In this case, the DAO lost funds, but that’s probably the least of our worries because the rest of aavegotchi or crypto in general has failed for some reason.
To me, the brilliance of this is that the risk is so small compared to our available $, and the potential repetition means the upside is extreme.
We could potentially employ a “Build Strategy” too. Allocate a certain percentage to hold and build (maybe 20%, or some other percentage that works as a effective burn/diamond hand) We could take these and build Aalters, Haarvesters, Reseviors… I guess this opens another can of worms about how these assets would be managed/ stewarded by the DAO.
The DAO should exercise caution in allowing the price of parcels to balloon irrespective of their underlying productive value. When the Treasury acts as an obligate buyer, its purchases do not reflect new money entering the system. Rather, buying floor parcels will probably subsidize the exit of capital, as some sellers take the DAO’s GHST and dump it.
Player purchases of raffle tickets likewise do not inherently represent new money entering the system, and again the sale of won parcels could result in net capital loss if many are simply sold back to the DAO. The DAO may remain solvent in terms of GHST, but not in terms of GHST-paired value as the token is sold off by parcel sellers. This effect would be more pronounced if the DAO decides to keep buying even as humble parcels double or triple in value from the treasury-subsidized stimulus.
I don’t think we should encourage irrational pricing of land, even though I like the idea of the DAO occasionally providing events like these simply as a game. The game comes with a cost. Part of which could end up being borne by players who buy into land pumps, not understanding that the value comes from speculation backed by the DAO’s purchases, and will be left holding the bag if the DAO decides to stop providing liquidity once parcel prices get too high.
If the intent also is to provide new players a pathway to land ownership, tacking on volatile speculative value with no matching productive value makes it harder for them to recoup their investment from interest (Alchemica) alone.
In essence the DAO would be setting a price at which it is always willing to buy, which means manipulating the market using Treasury funds. I don’t think this is inherently a bad thing, if it produces “value” by doing so (in this case, broader ownership), but the real effects would need to be monitored.
I do like the idea of “DAO Land” or “Public Land”, but like you I don’t know how this would be managed (our very own Bureau of Parcel Management?) and how the Alchemica produced would be used.
There was some talk in other threads about the possibility of limiting gathered Alchemica to in-game purchases. That made me wonder if we should think about ways to provide pathways to land/gotchi ownership that can be solely obtained through gameplay, rather than through payment. An issue I perceive with a raffle system is the tendency for small players to be pushed out simply through probability, as opposed to skill or time commitment to the game. This becomes a distribution problem if we’re trying to get these assets more widely disseminated instead of continually concentrating them among a few hands.
Lots of great points being discussed here. I want to clarify my thoughts and intentions behind this raffle.
The major pain point I’m seeing divide the community right now is the delay of the Land Auction 3. There are valid concerns justifying the delay as well as valid justifications for keeping it live. It’s either hold our ground and honour our commitment for the auction OR reevaluate things based upon horrendous market conditions.
The major gripe is that there are a lot of newer entrants with GHST in hand ready to partake in the auction. Some are scholars who have saved up money and others are new players in general. The challenge is the sheer quantity of parcels being auctioned off. I don’t believe we as a community are in the position to absorb this level of inflation without absolutely wrecking the floors.
How then can we “release” parcels without decimating the floor? If the DAO treasury force allocates something even as little as 4k GHST, we could buy 50 humble parcels and raffle them off for 1 GHST tickets. By keeping the ticket quantities capped, the odds of winning would remain relatively high.
The overall intention behind this is not necessarily to build some big giant operation but rather create a mechanism which allows for players to gain access to out-of-reach assets with a very low cost of entry raffle. The purpose was thinking of the little guys here. Not create some exit-liquidity mechanic.
I do find it interesting that many people are in the DAO Discord channel speaking out how to help their scholars and those who are ready to buy lands. Yet at the same time, people in here are speaking out that a mere 4k GHST idea would create an exit-liquidity mechanism where players just dump on the markets. Where are those scholars who win a raffle now?
It is also worth noting that people have concerns how a 4K GHST buying experiment could potentially ravage our bazaar economy but are open for an auction of 6,000 parcels. I don’t have the numbers on me, but let’s assume 50% are humbles and 25% reasonable and 25% spacious.
That’s 3,000 humbles x 75 GHST = 225,000
1500 reasonable x 150 (haven’t checked floors) = 225,000
1500 spacious x 750 = 1,125,000
That’s 1.575m GHST the market needs to absorb at current prices!!! And if 25% of those parcels are raffled off with frens, we’re looking just under 400k GHST worth of “free” assets players win just from staking. That’s 100x potential for exit liquidity to dump on the markets.
I simply cannot see how a 4k GHST experiment to help new entrants gain access to the economy can be a bad thing compared to a 1.575m GHST inflation event.
I originally thought the 4,000 GHST would be best suited for a humble auction as that asset typically suits a smol guy more than a whale. The juice wouldn’t necessarily be worth the squeeze. And by keeping the ticket cost ratio at 150% of the assets being raffled, you couldn’t easily game the mechanic.
@coderdan the idea to make raffles available for all is interesting, however I don’t think this mechanic should be open for all otherwise we might find ourselves quickly in a jumbled mess of 1000’s of concurrent raffles.
The intention was to create a simple solution to help the smol guy. If the first raffle is a success, then we could keep running them as long as the demand for the tickets is there.
Kinda off-topic/lofty, but what if DAO bought up floor lands and just build HARDKOR’s trees on em? take a stab at our carbon footprint? Obvi with some grass, maybe flowers for the lil sus butterflies?
Given that we’re so happy to bleed out alchemica just to get new users, a pr approach like this might pass…
A 4k ghst humble raffle is a drop in the ocean… go for it. Don’t see how this compensates anyone who brought drop tickets in preparation for the land raffle though…
But yea why not throw these small raffles for the newbies, I think a few scholar success stories will be awesome marketing material for the game.
Might as well do something for them seeing as spillage it being turned off…
Creation of private raffles is available to all.
Nothing is stopping anyone from doing this.
I need a dev. Have art, have the technical design… I will give a spacious parcel as payment, or split the smol % I built in, if someone will work with me to make it real.
Could we potentially alleviate some of the concerns around price impact in the next auction by implementing a floor on the GBM? Humble would have a starting price of X, Reasonable Y, Spacious Z, The GBM would start there instead of 0… This would/could cause more parcels to go unsold, but then we could just raffle off the excess, this should help with the drop ticket prices also as it would off set some of the inflation we have experienced by having more available parcels/increasing the odds of winning something.
Great point. If I’m concerned about a small 4K Ghst test and that being an issue what do I think is going to happen with a full fledged auction/raffle.
Overall, I really like the idea and would definitely support it as a test. Worst case we learn something.
One of the best ideas out there. Love it. The key thing here is to give new players a chance to own a precise gotchis with extremely low barrier (of cause with luck). No inflation and hopefully a great uplifting force of the gotchi market as a side effect.
Kudos to you guys.
@notorious_BTC
In light of recent market meltdowns and the delay of the official raffle, we propose that the DAO take 4,000 GHST, and use it to buy sub floor parcels to distribute in a raffle.
The raffle is triggered when the entries equal 150% of the amount that the DAO put in. For round one, that would be 6k GHST
Purchasing will be done by a bot if the DAO can procure one for a reasonable amount or a community member provides one. If no bot is available, the DTF will assign members to make the purchases manually. This will ensure that we are not feeding the relisting bot that is currently buying up anything 20% below floor, and relisting it.
Purchase parameters will be decided in private by the DTF, so as to avoid affecting the market and having people game the system. There will be a ceiling in place, so as to avoid a situation where people just raise the floor because the DAO is buying.
Round 1 - Humble parcels
Round 2 - Reasonable Parcels
Round 3 - Open Portals/Floor Gotchis
Round 4 - Closed Portals
Round 5 - Spacious Parcels
How about you give me a gotchi ID, and we post it? Time is of the essence here, if this is to have the desired effect.
I’m not sure this actually needs a sigprop but rather a green light from the DTF. There are some technical aspects to iron out as well. Let me do a little more digging on this before we raise any props or funds.
