Ah yes, in this model I focused on what will happen when you shift from one category to the other, but your suggestion specifically is a bit different than this:
This suggestion although different, would show probably similar tendencies if we modeled it. The simple reason being that you are signaling less rewards for the same wearables now, and likely in the future- so inevitably reward premiums the market is willing to pay will decrease.
I did not assume, I simply plugged in the F variable to the numbers for the different H2 scenarios to find the results. F variable is simply the ratio the market has proven to pay extra as you increase potential rewards. To best understand this we have to delve into what drives portal sales. I am sure you have noticed or could easily observe in bazaar activity just how often someone will buy a portal, open it, and sell or dispose the resulting gotchi no matter what the gotchi is. This dynamic would certainly not change in H2. There is a huge lotto ticket/ scratch-off ticket dynamic to these portals, and what drives price is the search for that ultra-high- BRS gotchi that can be sold for over 30k GHST.
Now let me ask you, what drives this economic activity? Do you really think that if we keep reducing rarity/BRS rewards, people will continue to shell out over 30k GHST for a rare gotchi? Portal prices will not go up, because the issue with the XP and Kinship games is they are (right now) mostly subtractive of the game economy, while the BRS is additive. This where I have found ironic your prior use of the word “leech”. If anything, players of the XP or Kinship game are “leeching” the reward pool that has been mostly fed via BRS market dynamics. Not the other way around.
Portal prices would not go up if rewards are moved away from BRS and towards Xp/Kin. Why? Less people will buy portals searching for rare gotchi, because less people will buy these rare gotchi and will pay less for them. Kin and XP wouldn’t restore this loss, because those games you can enjoy the same rewards no matter how the gotchi is. Portal prices would drop where if anything, floor low-BRS gotchi prices might rise a bit. All gotchi can participate nearly the same way in XP and Kin, so people would buy the cheapest gotchi possible for the best ROI. We can also take this thought experiment further and to the extreme. Whales and BRS players are so demonized in this game/community some people have actually proposed in disc to flat out eliminate rewards, make it a F2P game, etc.
This is where I really get confused, why try to take out the defi of this project and aim to make it like any other “free” to play game out there? Some others have no idea about economics or where funds would come from to reward them- they just want a a game where they spend little but they are showered with constant XP and kin rewards. They don’t stop to think this is impossible unless the game became gimmicky about things like most “free” mobile games.
Do we want that kind of game? Simply to drive out those wealthy players? At some point as end users we should make peace with this being a defi game that inevitably will provide extra benefits/engagement the more you invest, or simply look elsewhere for a F2P game.
The problem is when you signal you can reduce rewards, the market responds immediately. This the Adam Smith’s famous “invisible hand”. I have noticed we have a lot of users that don’t understand this concept. People frequently make arguments like “if we reduced rewards, I wouldn’t change my spending patters. I would understand it’s for the good of the project, etc. other people will probably do the same” These kind of arguments are usually nothing more than poetic rubbish. The invisible hand concept explains why the market seemingly adjusts quickly and ruthlessly to any new realities, regardless of morals or philosophy or what “should be”.
Your argument older wearables have already received rewards and should not get more, or receive less moving forward I also find incorrect. Szn1 rewards yielded at best 10% for HIGH BRS wearables and gotchi. If the dynamic becomes to participate mostly in only one season, prices for wearables would take quite the nose-dive. People had invested assuming these wearables would always participate in farming, so a change of terms would hurt the overall project way more than whatever benefit we get to appease those who feel the game is stacked in favor of whales.
To take away rewards from older wearables to give to new, inevitable sends the market the signal that wearables might be more “disposable” re. rewards than it had seemed, and the invisible hand will do its thing.